BANK RENTABELLIGI VA SOLIQ RISKLARI
Ключевые слова:
bank rentabelligi, soliq risklari, ROA, ROE, NPL, IFRS 9 ECL, foyda solig‘i, korrelyatsiya tahlili, O‘zbekiston bank sektori, davlat banklari, xususiy banklar, BEPS.Аннотация
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston tijorat banklari rentabelligi va soliq risklari o‘rtasidagi statistik bog‘liqlik 2020-2024 yillar oralig‘ida empirik tahlil qilinadi. Tadqiqot ob’ekti - O‘zbekiston Respublikasi bank sektori, predmeti esa ROA, ROE, aktivlar, soliq yuki va ECL zaxiralari o‘rtasidagi o‘zaro bog‘liqlikdir. Metodologik jihatdan deskriptiv statistika, Pearson korrelyatsiya tahlili va qiyosiy tahlil usullaridan foydalanilgan. Tadqiqot natijalariga ko‘ra, sektor jami aktivlari nominal qiymatda 2,8 baravar oshib, 2020-yildagi 271,5 trln so‘mdan 2024-yilda 769,3 trln so‘mgacha yetdi (CAGR 29,7%). ROA ko‘rsatkichi 2023-yildagi 2,6 foizdan 2024-yilda 1,4 foizgacha, ROE esa 14,2 foizdan 6,6 foizgacha tushdi. Bank foyda solig‘ining budjetdagi ulushi 1,87 foizdan 0,75 foizgacha (60% pasayish) kamaydi. Eng kuchli musbat korrelyatsiyalar ROA-ROE (r = +0,978) va Aktivlar-ECL (r = +0,945) o‘rtasida, manfiy korrelyatsiya esa NPL-ROE (r = −0,683) bo‘yicha qayd etilgan. Mulkchilik shakli bo‘yicha xususiy banklar yuqori rentabellikni (ROA 3,2%, ROE 26,5%), davlat banklari past ko‘rsatkichlarni (ROA 1,1%, ROE 7,8%), xorijiy ishtirokli banklar esa eng yuqori soliq riski darajasini (7,5 ball) namoyish etgan.
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